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Three reasons Trump is surging in the polls
And how to make sure it continues.
The Democrats are sending out panicked e-mails these days. Those are fun to read. They’re in a panic because they’re afraid the horrible candidate they’ve nominated is in the process of blowing it again – just as she blew her “inevitable” coronation in 2008.
And it very well may be true. The Democrats are shrieking about polls tightening in critical battleground states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is especially funny because earlier last week, when a few national polls started to show Trump tied or taking the lead, liberal commentators scoffed that this didn’t matter because the presidential race is a national race and the only thing that mattered was the electoral map, which they insist is “difficult for Trump.”
Well, yes and no. It’s difficult in the sense that there are probably more locked-in Democrat electoral votes than there are locked-in Republican electoral votes. But history has shown that a candidate who manages to prevail in the popular vote almost always pulls enough electoral votes along to take the electoral college. In fact, the only exception to this in the past century was 2000, and we all know that it was the Republican who benefited in the electoral college that year.
So yes, Democrats should be in a panic. Donald Trump is not going to surge into a lead in the popular vote but still somehow manage to lose enough battleground states to make Hillary the next president. It almost never works that way. As Trump rises in the polls nationally, you will eventually see that reflected in the states he needs most – including the three mentioned above.
And since it’s now beyond dispute that Trump is surging and Hillary is slumping, I think it’s worth looking at the two most crucial reasons this is happening:
- Trump is easily outperforming the expectations that have been placed on him. Granted, this is not that hard to do when you’ve been portrayed to people as a racist, lunatic moron. But that’s on the Democrats and their media servants for overplaying their hands where Trump is concerned. Did you see the NBC Commander in Chief forum last week? Trump was excellent – cool, confident and in command of the facts. Anyone who tuned in expecting to see a madman got a huge surprise. In fact, this usually happens when people see the real Donald Trump and not the media-created caricature they’ve heard about. Yes, he does occasionally say outrageous things, but he’s much smarter and much better prepared than most people have been led to believe. The more people see that, the more the numbers move in his favor.
- People have had it with Hillary’s lying. Once again referring back to the Commander in Chief forum, it was a seminal moment when a veteran stood up and told her that if he’d treated classified information the way she had, he’d be in prison. Her response was priceless. She was angry, flummoxed and stammering. She repeated the usual nonsense about classification markings – which no one believes anymore – and demonstrated all throughout that this issue has got her at her wit’s end. As you watched her on the defensive, with nothing to say for herself but the same lies the public has already rejected, you realize her lack of honesty is a millstone around her neck and she can’t get it off. People don’t want a liar in the White House. For a while they were buying the idea that they had to accept one because the alternative was a stark-raving lunatic. But the more they see Donald Trump, the less they believe that.
- People are figuring out just how awful Barack Obama’s policies have been for the nation, and they don’t want to elect a candidate who promises to continue them. Economic growth is awful. Labor force participation is horrendous. ObamaCare is collapsing. The Russians are on the march across the globe and they have no fear of the U.S. The deficit is exploding again. The tax code is a Byzantine muddle. The Iran deal is blowing up in our faces. ISIS has still not been defeated. Syria is a mess. And Obama’s only answer is to blame Republicans and assail capitalism. Four years ago, you could convince voters that Obama’s policies just needed more time to work. No one believes that now. Yet Hillary has nothing else to offer.
These are the reasons Trump is ascendant. I’m sure Hillary will counterpunch, and this thing is far from over. But she is an awful candidate and he is much better than people have been led to believe. She will probably try soon to change the subject again by promising more free stuff or falling back on the Trump-is-a-racist nonsense. But people have heard all that before.
No one at this late date is going to come up with a new rationale for why Hillary Clinton should be president. There isn’t one. She’s unfit for the presidency and the evidence of that has been clear for decades. And even if you think Trump represents a risk, that’s still better than a guaranteed disaster, which is exactly what Hillary would be.
Now, it’s time to close the deal with the voters. In the two months we have left, I’m convinced Trump can do it.
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