New swing state polls will thrill Trump fans, but don't get too excited just yet

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Published by: Robert Laurie on Tuesday May 10th, 2016

Narrow Margin

If you read any of the conservative blogs, news sites, or twitter feeds, you've probably seen the Quinnipiac story. A big, classy, really nice, new Q-poll shows that Donald Trump leads Hillary in Ohio and is only down by a point in Florida and Pennsylvania. 

As TownHall reports:

According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Donald Trump is beating Hillary Clinton in Ohio, and only trailing the Democratic frontrunner by one percentage point in Florida and Pennsylvania.  

In Ohio, Trump leads Clinton 43 percent to 39 percent.

In Florida, Clinton polls at 43 percent, while 42 percent support Trump.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton polls at 43 percent, with Trump at 42 percent.

According to the poll voters also think Trump is more trustworthy than Hillary, and will do better with economic matters.

We're sure Trump HQ likes this data, and his supporters are no doubt pretty happy as well. However, there are a couple of reasons why you shouldn't place a ton of stock in these numbers - or any numbers - just yet.

1. It's very, very, early. - Let's face it; pollsters are running hypothetical match-ups between two candidates who haven't even clinched the nomination yet. It certainly looks like both Clinton and Trump are unstoppable at this point, but remember: anything can happen. It would only take one outrageous statement from Trump or one teeny-tiny indictment for Hillary, and these numbers would be completely upended. Until the delegate's ballots are cast at the conventions, the whole thing is still up in the air.

2. Sample sizes - Some are arguing that the above poll oversamples white voters by about 4%. That may not seem like much but, in pollster terms, it's yuuge. On the flipside, there are early indications that Trump may do better with black voters than virtually any recent Republican. Since he's such an unusual candidate, there are concerns that the usual polling rules may not apply. There are already plenty of pollsters and analysts who've had to admit that they badly underestimated Trump in the primaries. While they've realized their mistake, that doesn't necessarily mean that they've corrected their methodolgies.

With all of that serving as a major caveat; here's the bright side for Trump fans: One of the big #NeverTrump arguments has been "he can't win in November." The potency of that claim seems to be waning of late. 

Democrats and #NeverTrumpers hold such a dim view of Trump's November chances that numbers this close should be impossibleHe's supposed to be down by double digits in every state that matters. He's supposed to be turning red states blue. He's supposed to be destroying his chosen party.  He's not supposed to be closing the gap.

Even if we assume there are sample problems, The Quinnipiac poll shows that The Donald is already outperforming the doomsday predictions offered by his detractors.   

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