In latest poll, Speaker Paul Ryan manages to eke out narrow 66 point lead over primary challenger

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Published by: Robert Laurie on Friday August 05th, 2016


It looks like a cool motorcycle and a couple of shout outs from Donald Trump will not be enough to carry Paul Ryan's challenger, Paul Nehlen, to victory.  Not that it was ever really close, but Ryan is poised to crush his opponent this Tuesday.

From the Hill:

Speaker Paul Ryan is expected to dominate in his primary election on Tuesday even without the endorsement of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.  

A Remington Research Group poll released Friday shows 80 percent of voters support Ryan in his Wisconsin primary, compared to 14 percent who back challenger Paul Nehlen, a conservative Trump supporter.

Trump declined this week to endorse Ryan and earlier praised Nehlen for his support.

The Trump faithful had hoped that Nehlen would dethrone Ryan in a Cantor-esque upset, but it simply isn't to be.  That's because, despite having been portrayed as some kind of Republican anti-Christ, Ryan is remarkably popular in his district.

From the Remington poll:

Paul Ryan’s image in the district mirrors the ballot. Ryan is extremely popular in his district with a favorable rating of 80% compared to an unfavorable rating of just 14%. Nehlen, on the other hand, is viewed unfavorably by 47% of likely Republican primary voters and viewed favorably by just 16%.

The Republican nominee for President, Donald Trump, is somewhat popular in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District with 52% of Republicans viewing Trump favorably and 32% viewing him unfavorably.

"It is clear, according to the most recent data, that Paul Ryan will win by a wide margin on Tuesday. The numbers have moved in Ryan’s favor since we last surveyed this race, indicating likely Republican voters there do not appreciate the attacks on their Congressman,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group.

Those numbers were almost identical back in May, and they've never really fluctuated much, so Ryan's victory was never really in doubt.

That said, there may be some tea-leaf reading to be done once the final vote tallies are in.  If Nehlen significantly over performs, it might - and I want to stress the word might - suggest that Trump could be doing better than his polling indicates.

However, you should get used to seeing Paul Ryan in D.C.  He's not going anywhere.

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