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CNN: Trump up by 1 in CO, down by just 1 in PA, and Hillary abandons Ohio...
Way back in the summer of 2015 - shortly after Donald Trump announced his candidacy - I was asked if he could actually win. My answer was an emphatic yes. While the media was obsessing over his style, I was arguing that people felt the country was dangerously of course. They wanted a candidate who would drop the namby-pamby political schtick and throw some real punches.
If Trump could stop getting in his own way, I argued, Hillary's glass jaw would emerge and her campaign would collapse - just as it did in 2008.
My liberal friends laughed. They're not laughing anymore.
Just one point separates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in two states that are critical to both candidates' chances of becoming president, according to new CNN/ORC polls in Pennsylvania and Colorado.
In Colorado, likely voters break 42% for Trump, 41% for Clinton, 13% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Pennsylvania's likely voters split 45% for Clinton, 44% for Trump, 6% for Johnson and 3% for Stein. Those divides are well within each poll's 3.5-point margin of sampling error.
New CNN/ORC polls, likely voters, +/-3.5— Eric Bradner (@ericbradner) September 26, 2016
Clinton — 45
Trump — 44
Johnson — 6
Stein — 3
Clinton — 42
Trump — 41
Johnson — 13
Stein —3 pic.twitter.com/cCIT6dHW7N
It's difficult to overestimate the intensity of the freakout that must be occurring over at Clinton HQ. If these numbers hold, they're positively disastrous. Colorado and Pennsylvania were supposed to be Clinton's firewall. They were the two states that were going to guarantee her the White House. It wasn't even supposed to be close. ...And yet, her lead has completely evaporated.
Keep in mind, this comes on the heels of her cratering numbers in Ohio. A state CNN now believes Hillary has abandoned.
To be clear, I'm not saying "Hillary is doomed," or "It's Trump's to lose," or anything like that. It's still entirely possible, even likely, that Hillary is going to pull this off. However, these numbers indicate that the odds of her victory are plummeting faster than anyone expected.
The data looks even worse when you consider the fact that many pollsters believe there is a silent, un-pollable, Trump vote lurking among the electorate. If Trump truly has a chunk of the population that won't admit they support him - but will do so on election day - Hillary is already underwater.